The risk factors and predictive model for cardiac valve calcification in patients on maintenance peritoneal dialysis:

Yuxi Wang1, Quanquan Shen1,2, Junni Wang1

  • 1Kidney Disease Center, The First Affiliated Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine; Institute of Nephrology, Zhejiang University; Key Laboratory of Kidney Disease Prevention and Control Technology, Zhejiang Province; Zhejiang Clinical Research Center of Kidney and Urinary System Disease, Hangzhou, Zhejiang, China.

Renal Failure
|October 23, 2023
PubMed

Insights

This study identified key risk factors for cardiac valve calcification (CVC) in maintenance peritoneal dialysis (MPD) patients. A predictive nomogram model incorporating age, sex, blood pressure, and dialysis parameters demonstrated high accuracy in predicting CVC risk.

Area of Science:

  • Nephrology
  • Cardiology
  • Medical Informatics

Background:

  • Cardiovascular calcification, encompassing cardiac valve calcification (CVC) and vascular calcification, is a significant concern in patients with chronic kidney disease.
  • Maintenance peritoneal dialysis (MPD) patients are particularly susceptible to cardiovascular complications, including CVC.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To identify independent risk factors associated with the development of CVC in MPD patients.
  • To develop and validate a predictive nomogram model for CVC in this patient population.

Main Methods:

  • A retrospective analysis of 1,035 MPD patients was conducted, with data collected between January 2014 and September 2021.
  • Patients were randomly allocated to derivation (70%) and validation (30%) cohorts.
  • Logistic regression analysis identified risk factors, and a nomogram was constructed using the rms package in R for CVC prediction.

Main Results:

  • The incidence of new-onset CVC was 12.4% (128 patients) over a median follow-up of 25 months.
  • Independent risk factors for CVC included older age, female sex, high systolic blood pressure (SBP), elevated calcium-phosphorus product (Ca×P), high Charlson comorbidity index (CCI), and longer dialysis duration.
  • The nomogram demonstrated strong predictive performance with a C-index of 0.845 in the derivation cohort and 0.845 in the validation cohort.

Conclusions:

  • A nomogram model effectively predicts CVC in MPD patients.
  • The model integrates readily available clinical parameters: age, sex, SBP, Ca×P, CCI, and dialysis time.
  • This tool can aid in early identification and management of CVC risk in MPD patients.
Abstract

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