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Updated: Jul 12, 2025
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Experimental Research Examining How People Can Cope with Uncertainty Through Soft Haptic Sensations
Published on: September 16, 2015
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Uncertainty in boundedly rational household adaptation to environmental shocks
Alessandro Taberna1, Tatiana Filatova1, Antonia Hadjimichael2,3
1Department of Multi Actor Systems, Faculty of Technology, Policy and Management, Delft University of Technology, 2628 BX Delft, The Netherlands.
Summary
Realistic human behavior, not rational agents, is key for climate adaptation models. Bounded rationality leads to an "adaptation deficit," underestimating flood damage and adaptation spread.
Area of Science:
- Sustainability Science
- Climate Change Adaptation
- Behavioral Economics
Background:
- Sustainability science models often use a 'rational agent' assumption, which doesn't reflect real-world human behavior.
- This is a significant issue for climate change adaptation, which requires understanding actions from individuals to governments.
- Empirical data show social and behavioral factors influence adaptation decisions, yet their impact on models is unclear.
Purpose of the Study:
- To explore how realistic household adaptation behavior to floods impacts nature-society systems models.
- To compare the outcomes of using a 'rational agent' versus 'boundedly rational' agents informed by empirical data.
Main Methods:
- Developed an innovative evolutionary economic agent-based model (ABM).
- Incorporated behavioral data from a household survey in Miami, USA, focusing on flood adaptation.
- Simulated different behavioral assumptions within the ABM framework.
Main Results:
- A representative rational agent model overestimates adaptation spread and underestimates flood damages compared to boundedly rational agents.
- An 'adaptation deficit' arises mainly from 'soft' constraints like awareness and social influences, not just financial limitations.
- Initial inequalities are exacerbated post-flood, and uneven adaptation benefits widen damage gaps, even with widespread adaptation.
Conclusions:
- Behavioral assumptions critically influence the perceived uncertainty of physical factors in risk assessments.
- Agent-based modeling with empirically informed, boundedly rational agents is crucial for assessing cumulative and distributional effects of adaptation.
- Findings support designing tailored climate adaptation policies and promoting equitable sustainability transitions.
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