Fishery catch records support machine learning-based prediction of illegal fishing off US West Coast

Illegal, unreported, and unregulated (IUU) fishing is a major problem worldwide, often made more challenging by a lack of at-sea and shoreside monitoring of commercial fishery catches. Off the US West Coast, as in many places, a primary concern for enforcement and management is whether vessels are illegally fishing in locations where they are not permitted to fish. We explored the use of supervised machine learning analysis in a partially observed fishery to identify potentially illicit behaviors when vessels did not have observers on board. We built classification models (random forest and gradient boosting ensemble tree estimators) using labeled data from nearly 10,000 fishing trips for which we had landing records (i.e., catch data) and observer data. We identified a set of variables related to catch (e.g., catch weights and species) and delivery port that could predict, with 97% accuracy, whether vessels fished in state versus federal waters. Notably, our model performances were robust to inter-annual variability in the fishery environments during recent anomalously warm years. We applied these models to nearly 60,000 unobserved landing records and identified more than 500 instances in which vessels may have illegally fished in federal waters. This project was developed at the request of fisheries enforcement investigators, and now an automated system analyzes all new unobserved landings records to identify those in need of additional investigation for potential violations. Similar approaches informed by the spatial preferences of species landed may support monitoring and enforcement efforts in any number of partially observed, or even totally unobserved, fisheries globally.