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Population immunity predicts evolutionary trajectories of SARS-CoV-2
Matthijs Meijers1, Denis Ruchnewitz1, Jan Eberhardt1
1Institute for Biological Physics, University of Cologne, Zülpicherstr. 77, 50937 Köln, Germany.
Cell
|October 24, 2023
Summary
Immune pressure from infections and vaccinations is now the main driver of SARS-CoV-2 evolution. A new model predicts variant emergence and antigenic changes, aiding future surveillance of the virus.
Area of Science:
- Virology
- Epidemiology
- Computational Biology
Background:
- SARS-CoV-2 evolution is characterized by rapid genetic clade turnover.
- New variants exhibit increased transmissibility and antigenic changes, impacting immunity from prior infections or vaccinations.
- The drivers of this functional variation in global evolution were previously unclear.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop a predictive fitness model for SARS-CoV-2 evolution.
- To integrate antigenic and intrinsic selection pressures into a unified model.
- To understand the dominant forces shaping recent viral evolution.
Main Methods:
- Developed a predictive fitness model for SARS-CoV-2.
- Integrated antigenic and intrinsic selection factors.
- Utilized time-resolved sequence data, epidemiological records, and cross-neutralization data.
Main Results:
- Immune pressure from vaccinations and infections is the dominant force in recent SARS-CoV-2 evolution.
- The model successfully predicts short-term evolution of circulating strains.
- The model identifies emerging variants likely to displace predominant strains and predicts antigenic profiles of escape variants.
Conclusions:
- Immune pressure is the primary driver of SARS-CoV-2 evolution.
- The developed fitness model is a valuable tool for ongoing surveillance.
- The model can forecast future variant emergence and their characteristics.
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