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Published on: February 10, 2015
A novel web-based online nomogram to predict advanced liver fibrosis in patients with autoimmune hepatitis-primary
Zhiyi Zhang1, Jian Wang2,3, Yun Chen4
1Department of Infectious Diseases, Nanjing Drum Tower Hospital Clinical College of Nanjing University of Chinese Medicine, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China.
Background:
Patients with autoimmune hepatitis-primary biliary cholangitis (AIH-PBC) overlap syndrome have a worse prognosis compared to AIH or PBC alone and accurately predicting the severity and dynamically monitoring the progression of disease are therefore essential. We aimed to develop a nomogram-based model to predict advanced liver fibrosis in patients with AIH-PBC overlap syndrome.
Methods:
A total of 121 patients with AIH-PBC overlap syndrome were retrospectively included and randomly assigned to a development set and a validation set. Backward stepwise regression's best model with the lowest AIC was employed to create a nomogram. Diagnose accuracy was evaluated using the area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUROC), calibration analysis, and decision curve analysis (DCA) and was compared with aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio (APRI) and fibrosis index based on four factors-4 (FIB-4) score.
Results:
The median age of patients was 53.0 years (IQR: 46.0-63.0), and female patients accounted for 95.0 %. Platelets, globulin, total bilirubin, and prothrombin time were associated with advanced fibrosis (≥S3) and used to construct an AIH-PBC overlap syndrome fibrosis (APOSF)-nomogram (available online at https://ndth-zzy.shinyapps.io/APOSF-nomogram/). The AUROCs of APOSF-nomogram were 0.845 (95 % CI: 0.754-0.936) and 0.843 (95 % CI: 0.705-0.982) in development set and validation set respectively, which was significantly better than APRI and FIB-4. Calibration revealed that the estimated risk fits well with biopsy-proven observation. DCA outperformed APRI and FIB4 in terms of net benefit, demonstrating clinical utility.
Conclusion:
This novel non-invasive web-based online APOSF-nomogram provided a convenient tool for identifying advanced fibrosis in patients with AIH-PBC overlap syndrome. Further prospective, multicenter studies with large sample size are necessary to validate the applicability of APOSF-nomogram.
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