Analyzing asymmetric ecological performance under structural change, technological innovation, and trade...

The present research scrutinizes the influences of trade diversification, air transportation, technological innovation, and economic complexity on ecological footprint from 1990 to 2019. The findings of the both time series unit root (with and without structural break) tests confirm that none of a single variable is stationary more than the first difference. Furthermore, the Wald and nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag bound methods check asymmetry and long-term cointegration relationship between the intended variables, respectively. Moreover, this study uses the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag model to estimate the short-run and long-run coefficients/elasticity of the ecological footprint function. Following the empirical evidence, the findings revealed that positive (negative) components in trade diversification curtail the ecological footprint in the long-run. In addition, a positive shock in air transportation leads to an increase in ecological footprint in the long-run. Nevertheless, a negative shock in air transportation exerts a significant and adverse influence on the level of ecological footprint in the long-run. Furthermore, a positive (negative) shock in technological developments significantly reduces environmental pollution in the US economy in the long-run. Besides, the outcomes from economic complexity discovered a positive shock will significantly overcome the pressure on the environment in the long-run. However, in the short-run, it is observed that negative shock in trade diversification will lead to increase the ecological footprint level in USA. Similarly, a positive shock in air transportation will lead to increase the pollution level in the short-run. In contrast, a negative shock in air transportation will lead to reduce the pressure on the environment in the short-run. Besides, in terms of policy realization, the present research recommends adopting trade synchronization, harmonic trade strategies, and investment in technological innovations to diminish the existing level of ecological footprint in the region. For sustainable development, this study put forward for instantaneously encouraging the expansion of the digital economy and reducing air pollution, accelerating the green transformation, and impelling the industrial agglomeration process in the USA.