Short-term air pollution exposure and mortality in Brazil: Investigating the susceptible population groups

This is the first study to examine the association between ambient air pollution (PM_2.5, O₃, and NO₂) and mortality (in different population groups by sex and age) based on a nationwide death record across Brazil over a 15-year period (2003-2017). We used a time-series analytic approach with a distributed lag model. Our study population includes 2,872,084 records of deaths in Brazil between 2003 and 2017. Men accounted for a higher proportion of deaths, with 58% for all-cause mortality, 54% for respiratory mortality, and 52% for circulatory mortality. Most individuals were over 65 years of age. Our results suggest an association between air pollution and mortality in Brazil. The direction, statistical significance, and effect size of these associations varied considerably by type of air pollutant, region, and population group (sex and age group). In particular, the older population group (>65 years) was most affected. The national meta-analysis for the entire data set (without stratification by sex and age) showed that for every 10 μg/m³ increase in PM_2.5 concentration, the risk of death from respiratory diseases increased by 2.93% (95%CI: 1.42; 4.43). For every 10 ppb increase in O₃, there is a 2.21% (95%CI: 0.59; 3.83) increase in the risk of all-cause mortality for the group of all people between 46 and 65 years old, and a 3.53% (95%CI: 0.34; 6.72) increase in the risk of circulatory mortality for the group of women, all ages. For every 10 ppb increase in NO₂, the risk of respiratory mortality increases by 17.56% (95%CI: 4.44; 30.64) and the risk of all-cause mortality by 5.63% (95%CI: 1.83; 9.44). The results of our study provide epidemiological evidence that air pollution is associated with a higher risk of cardiorespiratory mortality in Brazil. Given the lack of nationwide studies on air pollution in Brazil, our research is an important contribution to the local and international literature that can provide better support to policymakers to improve air quality and public health.