Anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibody levels predict outcome in COVID-19 patients with type 2 diabetes: a prospective cohort study

Patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D) constitute one of the most vulnerable subgroups in COVID-19. Despite high vaccination rates, a correlate of protection to advise vaccination strategies for novel SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern and lower mortality in this high-risk group is still missing. It is further unclear what antibody levels provide protection and whether pre-existing organ damage affects this threshold. To address these gaps, we conducted a prospective multicenter cohort study on 1152 patients with COVID-19 from five hospitals. Patients were classified by diabetes and vaccination status. Anti-SARS-CoV-2-spike-antibodies, creatinine and NTproBNP were measured on hospital admission. Pre-specified endpoints were all-cause in-hospital-mortality, ICU admission, endotracheal intubation, and oxygen administration. Propensity score matching was applied to increase comparability. We observed significantly lower anti-SARS-CoV-2-spike-antibodies in diabetic non-survivors compared to survivors (mean, 95% CI 351BAU/ml, 106-595 vs. 1123, 968-1279, p < 0.001). Mortality risk increased two-fold with each standard deviation-decrease of antibody levels (aHR 1.988, 95% CI 1.229-3.215, p = 0.005). T2D patients requiring oxygen administration, endotracheal intubation and ICU admission had significantly lower antibody levels than those who did not (p < 0.001, p = 0.046, p = 0.011). While T2D patients had significantly worse outcomes than non-diabetic patients, the differences were less pronounced compared to propensity-score-matched non-diabetic patients. Anti-SARS-CoV-2 spike antibodies on hospital admission are inversely associated with oxygen administration, endotracheal intubation, intensive care and in-hospital mortality in diabetic COVID-19 patients. Pre-existing comorbidities may have a greater impact on outcome than diabetes status alone.