Estimating Wolf Population Size and Dynamics by Field Monitoring and Demographic Models: Implications for Management...

Area of Science:

• Wildlife Ecology
• Population Dynamics
• Conservation Biology

Background:

• Accurate wolf population estimates are vital for effective conservation and management.
• Previous estimates for the Tuscan wolf population were significantly lower than current findings.

Purpose of the Study:

• To estimate the current size and dynamics of the wolf population in Tuscany.
• To investigate population trends and identify key demographic drivers of change.
• To compare field monitoring and modeling approaches for population estimation.

Main Methods:

• Mixed-technique field monitoring (2014-2016) to determine minimum pack numbers and population size.
• Individual-based modeling using Vortex software with local demographic data and historical population information.
• Sensitivity analysis to identify key demographic parameters influencing population changes.

Main Results:

• Field monitoring estimated a minimum of 558 wolves in 2016 (2.74 individuals/100 km²).
• The population model projected an increasing trend (λ = 1.075) with an estimated 882 wolves in 2016 (4.29 individuals/100 km²).
• Adult mortality rates (62.5%) were the primary driver of population growth variance, followed by juvenile mortality (35.8%).

Conclusions:

• Current wolf population estimates in Tuscany are higher than previously reported.
• Adult mortality is the most critical demographic factor influencing wolf population dynamics.
• Reliable population data and understanding demographic drivers are essential for effective wolf conservation and human-wildlife conflict management.