Restrictive measures and substance use reporting: New evidence from the COVID-19 pandemic

Since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, several studies have been conducted on the impact of lockdown and containment measures on various aspects of individual and social behaviour, including substance use. The increasing body of literature investigating this phenomenon emphasizes the need for additional studies at the local level. We investigate changes in reported illicit drug consumption following changes in public measures limiting individual mobility in the province of Bergamo, one of the regions that faced the most severe consequences in terms of number of cases and death toll in the early stages of the pandemic.

The empirical analysis is based on a unique dataset covering all people recorded by police forces as drug users between January 2019 and December 2021 in the province of Bergamo. Data relate to reports for illicit drug consumption and not criminal activities.

Estimates show that, during periods when individual mobility was severely limited, the probability of reported cannabis consumption decreased by 8-9%, while that of reported cocaine use increased by 6-12%. No significant changes emerge in the reported consumption of heroin or polysubstance. Furthermore, while reported cannabis use returned to pre-pandemic levels once the restrictive measures were eased, the increased likelihood of reported cocaine use appears to have been more long-lasting. These findings are robust to alternative estimation strategies and different model specifications. Our study also reveals significant gender, age and housing status disparities in reported drug use.

We provide a novel and distinctive perspective on the topic by using previously unexploited administrative data sources. We show that the relationship between restrictions and reported drug use varies by type of substance. Our methodology and findings can support the design of targeted policies for better resource allocation and improved public health outcomes.