Ten-year risk assessment for cardiovascular diseases using ASCVD risk estimator plus: outcomes from hypertension and...

Cardiovascular risk prediction models encompass numerous CVD risk factors. Available prediction models were developed from non-Asian cohorts hence we decided to evaluate the performance of the ASCVD risk estimator model and the associated 10-year CVD predisposing factors in Punjab.

We carried out a cross-sectional study among patients having hypertension and diabetes mellitus in a tertiary hospital in Punjab, India. 201 participants without ASCVD who were ≥ 40 years old and had been admitted to the medical ward were assessed. a pre-validated questionnaire was used to collect data on the socio-demographics and behavioral patterns. Lipid profile and blood pressure measurements were collected as per standard protocols. The respondents' CVD risk was assessed using ASCVD Risk Estimator Plus. Data were analyzed using IBM SPSS version 26; bivariate analysis was done using Chi-square and binary logistic regression was used to identify the predictors of 10-year risk for CVD at a 5% level of significance.

We examined the stratification of the predicted outcomes and evaluated the associations between individual risk factors and the predicted cardiovascular events. Our study categorized the results of these outcomes into 4 categories: low category (1-5%), borderline category (6-9%) intermediate category (10-20%), and high category (21-95%).

Out of the 201 participants that enrolled in our study, the majority 76 (37.8%) were in the intermediate category, 56 (27.9%) were in the high category, 41 (20.4%) were in the borderline category, 28 (13.9%) were in the low category. The median ASCVD percentage was 14.20%. Respondents who were alcoholics, smokers, and drug abusers (OR = 5.8, 95% CI 0.397-83.584) were associated with the highest likelihood of developing CVDs. Furthermore, males had a significantly higher mean predicted CVD outcome % (M = 23.18%) compared to females (M = 14.91%).

According to our prediction study, it was discovered that 145 (72.1%) participants were not likely to have had an ASCVD in the next 10 years. However, middle-aged males should be more cautious with their lifestyle habits, particularly in dealing with risk factors that can expose them to CVDs.