Construction of prediction model for fetal growth restriction during first trimester in an Asian population

To construct a prediction model for fetal growth restriction (FGR) during the first trimester of pregnancy and evaluate its screening performance.

This was a prospective cohort study of singleton pregnancies that underwent routine ultrasound screening at 11 to 13 + 6 weeks at the Affiliated Suzhou Hospital of Nanjing Medical University between January 2019 and April 2022. Basic clinical information, ultrasound indicators and serum biomarkers of pregnant women were collected. Fetal weight assessment was based on the fetal growth curve for the Southern Chinese population. FGR was diagnosed according to Delphi consensus criteria. Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (lasso) regression was used to select variables for inclusion in the model. Discrimination, calibration and clinical effectiveness of the model were evaluated in training and validation cohorts.

A total of 1188 pregnant women were included, of whom 108 had FGR. Lasso regression identified seven predictive features, including history of maternal hypertension, maternal smoking or passive smoking, gravidity, uterine artery pulsatility index, ductus venosus pulsatility index and multiples of the median values of placental growth factor and soluble fms-like tyrosine kinase-1. The nomogram prediction model constructed from these seven variables accurately predicted FGR, and the area under the receiver-operating-characteristics curve in the validation cohort was 0.82 (95% CI, 0.74-0.90). The calibration curve and Hosmer-Lemeshow test demonstrated good calibration, and the clinical decision curve and clinical impact curve supported its practical value in a clinical setting.

The multi-index prediction model for FGR has good predictive value during the first trimester. © 2023 The Authors. Ultrasound in Obstetrics & Gynecology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of International Society of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology.