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Improved statistical methods for estimating infestation rates in quarantine research when hosts are naturally
Carole Wright1, Pauline Wyatt2, David Mayer2
1Department of Agriculture and Fisheries, Mareeba, QLD 4880, Australia.
Journal of Economic Entomology
|October 31, 2023
Summary
New formulas improve pest infestation estimates for horticultural trade. These methods provide more reliable quarantine treatment efficacy data by addressing limitations in current International Plant Protection Convention (IPPC) guidelines.
Area of Science:
- Agricultural Entomology
- Quantitative Science
- Plant Protection
Background:
- Phytosanitary treatments are crucial for international horticultural trade to prevent pest movement.
- Accurate pest infestation rate estimation is vital for determining treatment efficacy.
- Current International Plant Protection Convention (IPPC) formulas for estimating infestation rates in naturally infested products have limitations, including the inability to assign confidence levels and concerns regarding underlying assumptions.
Purpose of the Study:
- To propose and evaluate alternative statistical formulas for estimating pest infestation rates in naturally infested horticultural products.
- To provide more statistically robust methods for determining quarantine treatment efficacy.
Main Methods:
- Proposed two alternative formulas for infestation rate estimation: a lower one-sided confidence limit for normally distributed data and a lower one-sided modified Cox confidence limit for log-normally distributed data.
- Compared the proposed formulas against the existing IPPC formulas.
- Applied all formulas to three real-world datasets of naturally infested horticultural products.
Main Results:
- The proposed alternative formulas offer statistically sounder estimates of infestation rates.
- These methods allow for the assignment of confidence levels, enhancing the reliability of treatment efficacy assessments.
- The study demonstrated the practical application and benefits of the new formulas using empirical data.
Conclusions:
- The developed statistical approaches provide improved accuracy and reliability in estimating pest infestation rates for quarantine purposes.
- Adoption of these methods can lead to more effective and scientifically validated phytosanitary treatments in international trade.
- The findings address critical statistical gaps in current pest risk management protocols for horticultural exports.
