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The unseen toll: excess mortality during covid-19 lockdowns
Florian Ege1, Giovanni Mellace2, Seetha Menon3
1Interdisciplinary Centre on Population Dynamics, University of Southern Denmark, Odense, Denmark.
Scientific Reports
|November 1, 2023
Summary
Sweden
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Public Health Policy
- Econometrics
Background:
- COVID-19 pandemic necessitated public health interventions globally.
- Sweden differed by not mandating lockdowns, relying on voluntary measures.
- Vaccines were unavailable during the study period (Feb-Sep 2020).
Purpose of the Study:
- To estimate the causal impact of Sweden's non-lockdown policy on mobility and mortality.
- To quantify the potential lives saved by implementing a mandatory lockdown.
Main Methods:
- Synthetic Control Method (SCM).
- Augmented Synthetic Control Method (ASCM).
- Synthetic Difference-in-Difference (SDID).
Main Results:
- Non-lockdown policy led to lower mobility reduction.
- A significant increase in COVID-19 related mortality was observed.
- An estimated 4,411 deaths (9.5% of total) could have been avoided with a lockdown.
Conclusions:
- Sweden's voluntary approach to COVID-19 mitigation resulted in higher mortality.
- Mandatory lockdowns may be an effective public health strategy for reducing COVID-19 deaths.
- Econometric methods confirm the detrimental impact of non-mandatory lockdown policies.
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