Attention based dynamic graph neural network for asset pricing

Recent studies suggest that networks among firms (sectors) play a vital role in asset pricing. This paper investigates these implications and develops a novel end-to-end graph neural network model for asset pricing by combining and modifying two state-of-the-art machine learning techniques. First, we apply the graph attention mechanism to learn dynamic network structures of the equity market over time and then use a recurrent convolutional neural network to diffuse and propagate firms' information into the learned networks. This novel approach allows us to model the implications of networks along with the characteristics of the dynamic comovement of asset prices. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed model in both predicting returns and improving portfolio performance. Our approach demonstrates persistent performance in different sensitivity tests and simulated data. We also show that the dynamic network learned from our proposed model captures major market events over time. Our model is highly effective in recognizing the network structure in the market and predicting equity returns and provides valuable market information to regulators and investors.