A mean-field description for the expansion kinetics of activated T cell populations

When lymphocytes encounter their cognate antigen, they become activated and undergo a limited number of cell divisions during which they differentiate into memory or effector cells or die. While the dynamics of individual cells are often heterogeneous, the expansion kinetics at the population level are highly reproducible, suggesting a mean-field description. To generate a finite division destiny, we consider two scenarios: Cells stop dividing after a certain number of iterations or their death rate increases with each cell division. The dynamics of the combined system can be mapped to a partial differential equation, and for a suitable choice of the activation rate, we obtain simple analytical solutions for the total cell number and the mean number of divisions per cell which can well describe the signal-dependent T cell expansion kinetics from in vitro experiments. Interestingly, only the division cessation mechanism yields an expression for the division destiny that does not contradict experiments. We show that the generation-dependent decrease of the division rate in individual cells leads to a time-dependent decrease at the population level which is consistent with a "time-to-die" control mechanism for the division destiny as suggested previously. We also derive mean-field equations for the total cell number which provide a basis for implementing T cell expansion kinetics into quantitative systems pharmacology models for immuno-oncology and CAR-T cell therapies.