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Understanding risk with FOTRES?

¹Institute of Philosophy, University of Bern, Länggassstrasse 49a, 3012 Bern, Switzerland.

|November 2, 2023

Summary

This summary is machine-generated.

The FOTRES recidivism risk assessment tool shows inadequate understanding of risk and fairness issues. Compared to COMPAS, FOTRES performs poorly on several criteria, with both tools lacking satisfactory performance overall.

Keywords:

COMPAS FOTRES Fairnessy Machine learning Recidivism risk assessment Understanding

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Area of Science:

Criminology
Forensic Psychology
Legal Technology

Background:

Recidivism risk assessment instruments are crucial in criminal justice.
FOTRES and COMPAS are prominent tools used for predicting reoffending.
Evaluating the accuracy, validity, and fairness of these instruments is essential.

Purpose of the Study:

To critically evaluate the FOTRES recidivism risk assessment instrument.
To assess FOTRES's adequacy in understanding risk and its fairness.
To compare FOTRES's performance against the COMPAS instrument.

Main Methods:

Evaluation of FOTRES using criteria: empirical accuracy, representational accuracy, domain of validity, intelligibility, and fairness.
Comparative analysis between FOTRES and COMPAS.
Qualitative and quantitative assessment of instrument performance.

Main Results:

FOTRES demonstrates poor performance compared to COMPAS on specific evaluation criteria.
Both FOTRES and COMPAS exhibit unsatisfactory performance regarding certain key criteria.
Concerns identified regarding the intelligibility and fairness of both risk assessment tools.

Conclusions:

FOTRES requires significant improvement to meet standards of accuracy and fairness.
The study highlights limitations in current risk assessment technologies, including COMPAS.
Further research is needed to develop more reliable and equitable recidivism prediction tools.