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Time-Dependent Changes in COVID-19 Severity Based on the Information of Patients Referring to Masih Daneshvari
Mehdi Kazempour-Dizaji1,2, Ali Zare2, Mohammad Varahram1
1Mycobacteriology Research Center (MRC), National Research Institute of Tuberculosis and Lung Disease (NRITLD), Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.
Insights
Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases are shifting towards increased severity over time. This trend suggests a potential for more aggressive disease progression and higher intensive care unit (ICU) admissions if not controlled.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Infectious Diseases
- Public Health
Background:
- Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) emerged as a novel infectious disease with many unknown characteristics.
- The transmission dynamics and effective treatments for COVID-19 remained areas of active investigation.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the time-dependent changes in the severity of COVID-19.
- To analyze trends in mild, moderate, and severe COVID-19 cases over time.
Main Methods:
- A correlation analysis was employed to examine temporal changes in COVID-19 severity.
- Data from 4372 patients with COVID-19 at Dr. Masih Daneshvari Hospital in Tehran were analyzed.
Main Results:
- On average, 154.80 patients presented with mild to moderate COVID-19, while 39.06 had severe COVID-19 daily.
- A statistically significant descending trend was observed in mild to moderate COVID-19 cases (r=-0.40, P=0.004).
- A significant ascending trend was noted in severe COVID-19 cases (r=0.43, P=0.003) over time.
Conclusions:
- COVID-19 severity is not constant and shows a trend towards increased aggressiveness.
- Failure to implement timely disease control measures may lead to a rise in severe COVID-19 cases and ICU hospitalizations.
Background:
Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a newly emerged disease with many unknown facets, so both the treatment and the cause of spreading this disease have remained mysterious so far.
Materials And Methods:
Based on the information of 4372 patients with COVID-19 referring to Dr. Masih Daneshvari Hospital in Tehran, the time-dependent changes in COVID-19 severity were investigated in this study using correlation analysis.
Results:
According to the results of this study, on average 154.80 patients were infected with mild to moderate COVID-19, and 39.06 were infected with severe COVID-19. The results of this study also indicated a descending trend in the number of patients with mild to moderate COVID-19 (r=-0.40, P-value=0.004) and an ascending trend in the number of patients with severe COVID-19 (r=0.43, P-value=0.003) overtime on a daily basis so that almost two patients were removed from those with mild to moderate COVID-19 and one was added to the patients with severe COVID-19 on average per day.
Conclusion:
Based on the current study results, it is concluded that COVID-19 severity will not be constant over time, and there is a probability of COVID-19 becoming more aggressive. Therefore, by the lack of timely control of the disease over time, we will witness an increased number of patients with severe COVID-19 and an increased number of hospitalizations in the intensive care unit (ICU) ward.
