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Sysmex-derived COVID-19 prognostic score as an early prognostic marker for severity of the COVID-19 disease
Martin Blažek1,2, Filip Vrbacký3, Ilona Fátorová3
1Pulmonary Clinic, University Hospital Hradec Králové, Hradec Králové, Czech Republic.
Insights
The COVID-19 prognostic score effectively predicts severe disease in patients with Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). This accessible marker aids early risk stratification and timely intervention for better patient outcomes.
Area of Science:
- Infectious Diseases
- Clinical Medicine
- Biomarkers
Background:
- Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) presents a heterogeneous clinical course, with some young patients experiencing severe outcomes.
- Identifying early, accessible markers to predict COVID-19 severity is crucial for clinical management.
- The COVID-19 prognostic score offers a potential tool for early risk assessment.
Purpose of the Study:
- To evaluate the COVID-19 prognostic score as a predictor of disease severity.
- To assess the clinical utility of the prognostic score in patients with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection.
- To determine the score's ability to stratify patients at high risk for severe COVID-19.
Main Methods:
- The COVID-19 prognostic score and laboratory parameters were assessed in patients with respiratory tract infections and positive SARS-CoV-2 PCR tests.
- Prognostic significance was determined using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and area under the curve (AUC) analysis.
- Blood count, hemostasis, and biochemical indicators were analyzed.
Main Results:
- The COVID-19 prognostic score demonstrated a high AUC of 0.855, indicating strong predictive value.
- A threshold of 1.5 on the score achieved high sensitivity (91.9%) and specificity (71.7%) for identifying severe disease.
- The predictive value of a negative test result was also significant (0.968).
Conclusions:
- The COVID-19 prognostic score is a promising indicator for stratifying patients.
- It enables timely identification of high-risk individuals at the initial point of care.
- This facilitates prompt escalation of care for patients at risk of severe COVID-19 development.
Background:
Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a life-threatening disease with a heterogeneous course. Even some young patients are at increased risk of severe course or death, as they can face severe complications. It would be very useful to have a cheap and easily available marker to predict COVID-19 course in the early stages of the disease. The COVID-19 prognostic score could be a very useful clinical indicator available at the time of primary contact with the patient.
Methods:
The COVID-19 prognostic score and the clinical condition together with selected laboratory parameters were evaluated in patients with respiratory tract infection and a positive PCR test for the SARS-CoV-2 during the first contact with the patient. Prognostic significance was evaluated using receiver operating characteristic curves (ROC) and area under the curve (AUC). Selected parameters of the blood count and hemostasis, as well as selected biochemical indicators, were examined too.
Results:
Thirty-seven of 164 patients developed serious symptoms. The COVID-19 score had one of the highest AUC values (0.855) of all markers. The highest combination of sensitivity (91.9%) and specificity (71.7%) for identifying patients with a subsequent moderate and severe course of the disease was achieved at the threshold 1.5. The predictive value of a negative test is beneficial too (0.968).
Conclusions:
The COVID-19 prognostic score is a promising indicator stratifying patients with COVID-19 into prognostic groups at the time of the first contact, thus allowing the timely provision of increased care in patients at high risk of severe development.
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