Genetic analysis of lactation consistency in US Holsteins using temporal variation in daily milk weights

The ability of a dairy cow to perform reliably over time is an interesting trait to include in dairy cattle breeding programs aimed at improving dairy cow resilience. Consistency, defined as the quality of performing as expected each day of the lactation, could be highly associated with resilience, defined as animal's ability to maintain health and performance in the presence of environmental challenges, including pathogens, heat waves, and nutritional changes. A total of 51,415,022 daily milk weights collected from 2018 to 2023 were provided for 255,191 multiparous Holstein cows milked 3 times daily in conventional parlor systems on farms in 32 states. The temporal variance (TEMPVAR) of milk yield from 5 to 305 d postpartum was computed as the log-transformed variance of daily deviations between observed and expected individual milk weights. Lower values of TEMPVAR imply smaller day-to-day deviations from expectations, indicating consistent performance, whereas larger values indicate inconsistent performance. Expected daily milk weights were computed using 3 nonparametric and parametric regression models: (1) loceally estimated scatterplot smoothing regression with a 0.75 span; (2) polynomial quantile regression using the median (0.5 quantile), and (3) polynomial quantile regression using a 0.7 quantile. The univariate statistical model included age at first calving and herd-year-season as fixed effects and cow as a random effect. Heritability estimates (standard errors) of TEMPVAR phenotypes calculated over the entire lactation ranged between 0.227 (0.011) and 0.237 (0.011), demonstrating that cows are genetically predisposed to display consistent or inconsistent performance. Estimated genetic correlations calculated using a multiple-trait model between TEMPVAR traits and between lactations were high (>0.95), indicating TEMPVAR is repeatable across lactations and robust to the model used to compute expected daily milk yield. Higher TEMPVAR phenotypes reflect more variation in performance, hence greater inconsistency, which is undesirable. Therefore, correlations between predicted transmitting abilities (PTA) for TEMPVAR and milk yield of 0.57 indicate that high-producing cows exhibit more day-to-day variation in performance. Correlations with productive life and livability were -0.38 and -0.48, respectively. Correlations between PTA for TEMPVAR and those of postpartum health traits were also negative, ranging from -0.41 to -0.08. Given that health traits are derived from disease resistance measurements, and higher health trait PTA are preferred, our results indicate that more consistent cows tend to have fewer health problems and greater longevity. Overall, our findings suggest that temporal variation in daily milk weights can be used to identify consistent animals that maintain expected performance throughout the lactation, which will enable selection for greater resilience to management and environmental perturbations.