Livestock greenhouse gas emission and mitigation potential in China

Livestock is an important source of greenhouse gas emissions (GHGE) in China. Understanding the greenhouse gas (GHG) emission trends and reduction strategies in livestock is crucial for promoting low-carbon transformation of the livestock sector (LS) and achieving the goal of "carbon peak and carbon neutralization". First, based on the life cycle assessment and IPCC coefficient methods, we calculated the GHGE of the LS in 31 provinces of China from 2000 to 2020 and identified the temporal and spatial evolution of GHG emission intensity. The LMDI method was then used to analyze the influence of efficiency, structure, economy, and population size on GHGE. Finally, the STIRPAT model was used to simulate the future evolution trend of the LS emissions under the SSPs scenario. The results revealed that the GHGE in the life cycle of livestock production decreased from 535.47 Mt carbon dioxide equivalent (CO₂e) in 2000 to 532.18 Mt CO₂e in 2020, and the main source was CH₄ emissions from enteric fermentation of livestock. Economic and efficiency factors markedly influenced the changes in GHGE from the LS in China. Further, economic factors contributed >40% to the increase in GHGE in most provinces. Under the SSP1, SSP2, and SSP4 scenarios, livestock production can achieve the carbon peak target in 2030. Under the baseline scenario (SSP2), the GHGE of China's LS in 2030 and 2060 are expected to be 491.48 Mt CO₂e and 352.11 Mt CO₂e, respectively. The focus of mitigation measures for livestock production in the future is to optimize the production structure of the LS, promote the low-carbon transformation of the energy structure of livestock feeding, and establish an efficient and intensive management model. In addition, we focus on emission reduction in key areas, such as Northeast and Northwest China, while optimizing diet and reducing food waste from the consumer side.