Threshold effect of technological innovation on carbon emission intensity based on multi-source heterogeneous data

Area of Science:

• Environmental Economics
• Innovation Studies
• Regional Science

Background:

• China's economy is undergoing a low-carbon transformation, necessitating an understanding of factors influencing carbon emission intensity.
• Technological innovation is a key driver for achieving sustainable development and reducing environmental impact.

Purpose of the Study:

• To analyze the impact of technological innovation on carbon emission intensity in China.
• To investigate the spatial spillover effects and nonlinear influences of technological innovation on carbon emission intensity.
• To provide insights for promoting China's low-carbon economic transformation.

Main Methods:

• Utilized panel data from 30 Chinese provinces and municipalities (2010-2020).
• Employed spatial econometric models to assess spatial spillover effects.
• Applied panel threshold models to examine nonlinear relationships and threshold effects.

Main Results:

• Carbon emission intensity in China decreased from 3.09 in 2010 to 1.98 in 2020.
• Technological innovation and carbon emission intensity exhibit significant global spatial aggregation.
• Technological innovation has a significant negative direct effect on carbon emission intensity.
• A three-threshold effect was identified, with innovation's inhibitory impact on emissions increasing with economic development, most pronounced in the third interval.

Conclusions:

• Technological innovation is a crucial tool for reducing carbon emission intensity in China.
• Spatial spillovers and nonlinear threshold effects, particularly linked to economic development, are significant factors.
• Findings offer valuable guidance for policy interventions aimed at accelerating China's low-carbon transition.