Multi-hazard susceptibility model based on high spatial resolution data-a case study of Sali settlement (Dugi otok,...

Area of Science:

• Environmental Science
• Geographic Information Science
• Risk Management

Background:

• Coastal regions face increasing natural hazards due to population pressure and climate change.
• Mediterranean countries exhibit high vulnerability to wildfires, floods, and soil erosion.
• Croatia's coastal areas require tailored natural hazard assessment tools.

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop the first multihazard susceptibility model (MHSM) for Croatia, focusing on the Sali settlement.
• To integrate geospatial technology (GST) with local perception surveys for comprehensive risk assessment.
• To model susceptibility to soil erosion, wildfires, and pluvial floods.

Main Methods:

• Developed individual hazard susceptibility models (soil erosion, wildfires, pluvial floods) using multicriterial GIS analyses and the Analytical Hierarchy Process.
• Created two versions of the MHSM: one with equal weighting and another incorporating public perception for weighting.
• Utilized very-high-resolution (VHR) data for 32 criteria in model development and ROC curves for accuracy validation.

Main Results:

• MHSM 1 indicated 58% of the area is moderately susceptible, with 27% highly susceptible, primarily near infrastructure.
• MHSM 2 showed similar spatial patterns, though public perception ranked wildfires as the highest risk, followed by floods and soil erosion.
• A significant discrepancy was noted between public perception and the GIS-MCDA model regarding soil erosion susceptibility.

Conclusions:

• The developed MHSM provides a robust framework for assessing multihazard susceptibility in vulnerable coastal zones.
• Integrating local perception offers valuable insights, though discrepancies with scientific models require further investigation.
• The methodological framework is adaptable for multihazard assessment in other Mediterranean regions.