Short- and Long-Term Survival of Metastatic Biliary Tract Cancer in the United States From 2000 to 2018

Information about survival outcomes in metastatic biliary tract cancer (BTC) is sparse, and the numbers often quoted are based on reports of clinical trials data that may not be representative of patients treated in the real world. Furthermore, the impact of more widespread adoption of a standardized combination chemotherapy regimen since 2010 on survival is unclear.

We performed an analysis of the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database to determine the real-world overall survival trends in a cohort of patients with metastatic BTC diagnosed between the years 2000 and 2017 with follow-up until 2018. We analyzed data for the entire cohort, evaluated short-term and long-term survival rates, and compared survival outcomes in the pre-2010 and post-2010 periods. Survival analysis was performed using the Kaplan-Meier method, and Cox proportional hazard models were used to evaluate factors associated with survival.

Among 13, 287 patients, the median age was 68 years. There was a preponderance of female (57%) and white (77%) patients. Forty-one percent died within 3 months of diagnosis (short-term survivors) and 20% were long-term survivors (12 months or longer). The median overall survival (OS) for the entire cohort was 4.5 months. Median OS improved post-2010 (4.5 months) compared to pre-2010 (3.5 months) (P < .0001). On multivariate analysis, age <55 years, intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma, surgical resection, and diagnosis post-2010 were associated with lower hazard of death.

The real-world prognosis of metastatic BTC is remarkably poorer than described in clinical trials because a large proportion of patients survive less than three months. Over the last decade, the improvement in survival has been minimal.