Predictors of mortality in patients with isolated gastrointestinal perforation

Gastrointestinal (GI) perforation is common in the emergency department and has a high mortality rate. The present study aimed to identify risk factors for mortality in patients with GI perforation. The objective was to assess and prognosticate the surgical outcomes of patients, aiming to ascertain the efficacy of the procedure for individual patients. A retrospective cohort study of patients with GI perforation who underwent surgery in a public tertiary hospital in China from January 2012 to June 2022 was performed. Demographics, clinical characteristics, laboratory and imaging results, and outcomes were collected from electronic medical records. The primary outcome measure was in-hospital mortality, and patients were divided into survivor and non-survivor groups based on this measure. Univariate and multivariable logistic regression analyses were performed to obtain independent factors associated with mortality. A total of 529 patients with GI perforation were eligible for inclusion. The in-hospital mortality rate after emergency surgery was 10.59%. The median age of the patients was 60 years (interquartile range, 44-72 years). Multivariable logistic regression analysis indicated that age, shock on admission, elevated serum creatinine (sCr) and white blood cell (WBC) count <3.5x10⁹ or >20x10⁹ cells/l were predictors of in-hospital mortality. In conclusion, advanced age, shock on admission, elevated sCr levels and significantly abnormal WBC count are associated with higher in-hospital mortality following emergency laparotomy.