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A model for voles interference in cultivated orchards.

Alberto Viscardi1, Sandro Bertolino2, Ezio Venturino1

  • 1Dipartimento di Matematica "Giuseppe Peano", Università degli studi di Torino, Italy.

Mathematical Biosciences
|November 9, 2023
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Summary

This study models vole populations in orchards using a seven-population dynamical system. Human activity and plant health impact vole numbers, explaining differences between cultivated and uncultivated fields.

Keywords:
Allee effectPopulation dynamicsRodents on cultivated areasSubpopulations structured by age groups

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Area of Science:

  • Ecology
  • Mathematical Biology
  • Agricultural Science

Background:

  • Vole populations can significantly impact agricultural yields.
  • Understanding factors influencing vole population dynamics is crucial for orchard management.
  • Previous studies have noted differences in vole abundance between various field types.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop a mathematical model simulating vole presence in cultivated orchards.
  • To investigate the influence of plant health, age structure, and human activity on vole populations.
  • To explain observed discrepancies in vole numbers between cultivated and uncultivated environments.

Main Methods:

  • A seven-population dynamical system was formulated.
  • Plant populations were stratified by age (3 groups) and health status (damaged/undamaged).
  • A modified logistic equation with Allee effect, incorporating human disturbance, modeled vole dynamics.

Main Results:

  • The model analytically and numerically investigated vole population dynamics.
  • Numerical simulations supported observed differences in vole numbers between cultivated and uncultivated fields.
  • Human activity and plant condition were identified as key factors influencing vole populations.

Conclusions:

  • The developed dynamical system effectively models vole populations in orchards.
  • The model provides insights into how agricultural practices and plant health affect vole abundance.
  • Findings contribute to understanding pest management strategies in cultivated ecosystems.