The limitations of phenotype prediction in metabolism

Phenotype prediction is at the center of many questions in biology. Prediction is often achieved by determining statistical associations between genetic and phenotypic variation, ignoring the exact processes that cause the phenotype. Here, we present a framework based on genome-scale metabolic reconstructions to reveal the mechanisms behind the associations. We calculated a polygenic score (PGS) that identifies a set of enzymes as predictors of growth, the phenotype. This set arises from the synergy of the functional mode of metabolism in a particular setting and its evolutionary history, and is suitable to infer the phenotype across a variety of conditions. We also find that there is optimal genetic variation for predictability and demonstrate how the linear PGS can still explain phenotypes generated by the underlying nonlinear biochemistry. Therefore, the explicit model interprets the black box statistical associations of the genotype-to-phenotype map and helps to discover what limits the prediction in metabolism.