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How does Mei-yu precipitation respond to climate change?
Bo Sun1,2,3, Rufan Xue1, Wanling Li1
1Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters/Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disasters, Ministry of Education/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China.
Global warming intensifies Mei-yu rainfall and extreme events in the Yangtze River valley, while also increasing dry days. Future warming will exacerbate these trends, posing significant climate risks.
Area of Science:
- Climatology
- Atmospheric Science
- Environmental Science
Background:
- Mei-yu is a crucial weather phenomenon in the middle-lower Yangtze River valley (YRV).
- Understanding Mei-yu's response to global warming is vital for regional climate risk management.
Purpose of the Study:
- Investigate changes in Mei-yu characteristics under global warming.
- Identify potential drivers of these observed changes.
- Project future Mei-yu behavior under a 2°C warming scenario.
Main Methods:
- Analysis of observational and reanalysis data (1961-2022).
- Utilized Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models for future projections.
- Examined trends in rainfall, dry days, and extreme precipitation events.
Main Results:
- Observed increasing trends in number of days without rainfall (NDWOR), rainfall intensity, and frequency/intensity of extreme precipitation events (EPEs) in the YRV.
- NDWOR increase linked to decreased humidity and longer moisture replenishment times.
- Increased rainfall intensity and EPEs attributed to strengthened water vapor convergence and convection.
Conclusions:
- Mei-yu in the YRV is projected to feature more dry days and more intense rainfall under a 2°C global warming scenario.
- Rainfall intensity during Mei-yu shows the most significant response to climate change.
- Future climate change presents increased challenges for regional climate risk management.
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