Predicting multiple conformations via sequence clustering and AlphaFold2

AlphaFold2 (ref. ¹) has revolutionized structural biology by accurately predicting single structures of proteins. However, a protein's biological function often depends on multiple conformational substates², and disease-causing point mutations often cause population changes within these substates^3,4. We demonstrate that clustering a multiple-sequence alignment by sequence similarity enables AlphaFold2 to sample alternative states of known metamorphic proteins with high confidence. Using this method, named AF-Cluster, we investigated the evolutionary distribution of predicted structures for the metamorphic protein KaiB⁵ and found that predictions of both conformations were distributed in clusters across the KaiB family. We used nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy to confirm an AF-Cluster prediction: a cyanobacteria KaiB variant is stabilized in the opposite state compared with the more widely studied variant. To test AF-Cluster's sensitivity to point mutations, we designed and experimentally verified a set of three mutations predicted to flip KaiB from Rhodobacter sphaeroides from the ground to the fold-switched state. Finally, screening for alternative states in protein families without known fold switching identified a putative alternative state for the oxidoreductase Mpt53 in Mycobacterium tuberculosis. Further development of such bioinformatic methods in tandem with experiments will probably have a considerable impact on predicting protein energy landscapes, essential for illuminating biological function.