Social Vulnerability and Firearm Violence: Geospatial Analysis of 5 US Cities

Firearm violence is now endemic to certain US neighborhoods. Understanding factors that impact a neighborhood's susceptibility to firearm violence is crucial for prevention. Using a nationally standardized measure to characterize community-level firearm violence risk has not been broadly studied but could enhance prevention efforts. Thus, we sought to examine the association between firearm violence and the social, structural, and geospatial determinants of health, as defined by the Social Vulnerability Index (SVI).

In this cross-sectional study, we merged 2018 SVI data on census tract with shooting incidents between 2015 and 2021 from Baltimore, Chicago, Los Angeles, New York City, and Philadelphia. We used negative binomial regression to associate the SVI with shooting incidents per 1,000 people in a census tract. Moran's I statistics and spatial lag models were used for geospatial analysis.

We evaluated 71,296 shooting incidents across 4,415 census tracts. Fifty-five percent of shootings occurred in 9.4% of census tracts. In all cities combined, a decile rise in SVI resulted in a 37% increase in shooting incidents (p < 0.001). A similar relationship existed in each city: 30% increase in Baltimore (p < 0.001), 50% in Chicago (p < 0.001), 28% in Los Angeles (p < 0.001), 34% in New York City (p < 0.001), and 41% in Philadelphia (p < 0.001). Shootings were highly clustered within the most vulnerable neighborhoods.

In 5 major US cities, firearm violence was concentrated in neighborhoods with high social vulnerability. A tool such as the SVI could be used to inform prevention efforts by directing resources to communities most in need and identifying factors on which to focus these programs and policies.