[Evaluation of the predictive effect of PD-L1 expression on survival in early triple-negative breast cancer]

Objectives: To find the prognostic factors related to early triple-negative breast cancer to optimize the therapeutic strategies, and explore the influence of programmed cell death ligand-1(PD-L1)expression in early triple-negative breast cancer on its prognosis, so as to provide support for clinical treatment decisions. Methods: Early triple-negative breast cancer patients treated at the National Cancer Center, National Clinical Research Center for Cancer, Cancer Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences during 1st June, 2009 and 31st Oct, 2015 were enrolled in this study. All the clinicopathological data of patients were collected, and the paraffin sections of the surgical specimens were stained with estrogen receptor, progesterone receptor, human epidermal growth factor receptor-2, secreted protein acidic and rich in cysteine (SPARC), androgen receptor, PD-L1 and other antibodies by the immunohistochemical method. Kaplan-Meier survival and Cox regression curves were used for survival analysis of relevant clinical and pathological results and nomogram survival prediction models were established to explore the influence of relevant factors on the prognosis. Results: A total of 205 patients with triple-negative breast cancer were enrolled. Ninety patients (43.9%) were PD-L1 positive. The median follow-up time was 63 months. Thirty-seven patients were relapsed or recurrent and 16 patients were dead. The 5-year disease-free survival (DFS) rate and overall survival (OS) rate were 86.1% (95% CI: 81.4%-90.8%) and 93.6% (95% CI: 91.0%-97.6%), respectively, in the general population. Univariate Cox regression analysis showed that PD-L1 expression and lymph node metastasis were correlated with DFS and OS (P<0.05). In multivariate analysis, PD-L1 expression was an independent influencing factor of DFS, with PD-L1 positive patients possessing a significant survival benefit in DFS (HR=0.31, 95% CI: 0.13-0.73). Lymph node metastasis was an independent influencing factor of OS, and OS was significantly shortened in patients with positive lymph node metastasis (HR=3.24, 95% CI: 1.15-9.17). PD-L1, lymph node metastasis, menopausal status, Ki-67 index and adjuvant chemotherapy regimen were included to establish the 1- and 3-year DFS and OS nomogram prediction models, resulting in C indices of 0.698 and 0.748, respectively. Conclusions: PD-L1 expression is a predictive biomarker of good prognostic factor in triple-negative breast cancer patients. DFS is significantly prolonged in PD-L1 positive patients and OS also shows a prolongation trend. The nomogram prognosis prediction models have reference values for adjuvant chemotherapy in this patient group.