Additivity predicts the efficacy of most approved combination therapies for advanced cancer

Most advanced cancers are treated with drug combinations. Rational design aims to identify synergistic combinations, but existing synergy metrics apply to preclinical, not clinical data. Here we propose a model of drug additivity for progression-free survival (PFS) to assess whether clinical efficacies of approved drug combinations are additive or synergistic. This model includes patient-to-patient variability in best single-drug response plus the weaker drug per patient. Among US Food and Drug Administration approvals of drug combinations for advanced cancers (1995-2020), 95% exhibited additive or less than additive effects on PFS times. Among positive or negative phase 3 trials published between 2014-2018, every combination that improved PFS was expected to succeed by additivity (100% sensitivity) and most failures were expected to fail (78% specificity). This study shows synergy is neither a necessary nor common property of clinically effective drug combinations. The predictable efficacy of approved combinations suggests that additivity can be a design principle for combination therapies.