An interdisciplinary model chain quantifies the footprint of global change on reservoir sedimentation

Global change alters hydro-climatic conditions, affects land use, and contributes to more frequent droughts and floods. Large artificial reservoirs may effectively alleviate hydro-climatic extremes, but their storage capacities are threatened by sedimentation processes, which in turn are exacerbated by land use change. Envisioning strategies for sustainable reservoir management requires interdisciplinary model chains to emulate key processes driving sedimentation under global change scenarios. Therefore, we introduce a model chain for the long-term prediction of complex three-dimensional (3d) reservoir sedimentation considering concurrent catchment, hydro-climatic, and land-use conditions. Applied to a mountainous Mediterranean catchment, the model chain predicts increased sediment production and decreased discharge for high and medium emission pathways. Increased winter precipitation, accompanied by a transition from snowfall to rainfall, is projected to aggravate reduced summer precipitation, emphasizing a growing need for reservoirs. Additionally, higher winter precipitation proliferates sediment production and reservoir sedimentation. Land use change can outweigh the increased reservoir sedimentation originating from hydro-climatic change, which highlights the significance of localized actions to reduce sediment production. Finally, a 3d hydro-morphodynamic model provides insights into interactions between global change and reservoir sedimentation with spatially explicit information on future sedimentation patterns facilitating the implementation of management strategies.