Evolving Trends and Economic Burden of Benzodiazepine Use: Insights From a 10-Year Predictive Model

Benzodiazepines (BZDs) are widely prescribed in Croatia to treat anxiety, insomnia, mood disorders, and epileptic seizures. Long-term BZD use is associated with memory loss, Alzheimer's disease, dependence, addiction, falls in elderly populations, and increased traffic accident risk.

Drug consumption data were obtained from the Agency for Medicinal Products and Medical Devices of Croatia website. Autoregressive integrated moving average models, constructed using R programming language, forecasted diazepam, alprazolam, and overall BZD utilization and financial costs at a national level over 10 years.

BZD consumption increased by up to 18.6% between 2012 and 2020. During the same period, diazepam utilization rose by 29.1%, and alprazolam consumption increased by 19.4%. Our model predicts that, by 2032, BZD, diazepam, and alprazolam utilization will increase substantially. The total projected financial expenditure for BZDs in 2032 is estimated at 14.22 million euros, with diazepam and alprazolam expenditures at 7.39 and 4.12 million euros, respectively. These increases will result in significant growth in healthcare spending and a rise in adverse effects related to long-term use.

National healthcare decision makers should consider implementing regulatory and legislative measures to quantify, specify, and limit monthly BZD use for each patient. This would help control the negative side effects of prolonged BZD use while continuing to provide treatment for patients who genuinely need it.