Genetic discovery and risk prediction for type 1 diabetes in individuals without high-risk HLA-DR3/DR4 haplotypes

Over 10% of type 1 diabetes (T1D) cases do not have high-risk HLA-DR3 or DR4 haplotypes with distinct clinical features such as later onset and reduced insulin dependence. To identify genetic drivers of T1D in the absence of DR3/DR4, we performed association and fine-mapping analyses in 12,316 non-DR3/DR4 samples. Risk variants at the MHC and other loci genome-wide had heterogeneity in effects on T1D dependent on DR3/DR4, and non-DR3/DR4 T1D had evidence for a greater polygenic burden. T1D-assocated variants in non-DR3/DR4 were more enriched for loci, regulatory elements, and pathways for antigen presentation, innate immunity, and beta cells, and depleted in T cells, compared to DR3/DR4. Non-DR3/DR4 T1D cases were poorly classified based on an existing genetic risk score GRS2, and we created a new GRS which highly discriminated non-DR3/DR4 T1D from both non-diabetes and T2D. In total we identified heterogeneity in T1D genetic risk and disease mechanisms dependent on high-risk HLA haplotype and which enabled accurate classification of T1D across HLA background.