Meta-analysis reveals responses of coccolithophores and diatoms to warming

A meta-analysis was conducted to explore the effects of warming on the physiological processes of coccolithophores and diatoms by synthesizing a large number of published literatures. A total of 154 studies consisting 301 experiments were synthesized in this study. Under a projected temperature increase of 3-5 °C by IPCC AR6 at the end of this century, our results suggest that the growth and photosynthetic rate of coccolithophores were significantly enhanced by the rising temperature, while the calcification of coccolithophores was only slightly promoted. Warming also had significantly positive effects on the growth but not photosynthesis of diatoms. In comparison, the effect size of warming on the growth rate of coccolithophores was larger than that of diatoms. However, there was no significant effect of warming on either the ratio of particulate inorganic carbon to particulate organic carbon (PIC:POC) of coccolithophores or the ratio of biogenic silica to carbon (BSi:C) of diatoms. Furthermore, the results reveal latitudinal and size-specific patterns of the effect sizes of warming. For diatoms, the effects of warming on growth were more prominent in high latitudes, specifically for the Southern Hemisphere species. In addition, the effect size of warming on the small-sized diatoms was larger than that of the large-sized diatoms. For coccolithophores, the growth of the Southern Hemisphere temperate strains was significantly promoted by warming. Overall, the results based on the meta-analysis indicate that the projected warming of the end of this century will be more favor to the growth of coccolithophores than that of diatoms, thus potentially affect the competitive advantages of coccolithophores over diatoms; while the mid-to high latitude species/strains of both coccolithophores and diatoms will benefit more than their counterparts in the lower latitudes. Therefore, this study offers novel insights into predicting both the inter- and intra-group competitive advantages of diatoms and coccolithophores under the future warming climate change scenario.