Cost-Utility Model of Nirmatrelvir/Ritonavir in Brazil: Analysis of a Vaccinated Population

The aim of this study is to conduct a cost-utility analysis of the use of the antiviral nirmatrelvir/ritonavir, applied to a vaccinated Brazilian population against COVID-19, from the perspective of the Brazilian Public Health System (SUS).

A microsimulation model was created with individual-level data and daily cycles, with a 1-year time horizon, to compare the current scenario of standard care with a scenario in which nirmatrelvir/ritonavir is offered to the population. Adults of any age group that received ≥2 doses of the COVID-19 vaccine formed the investigated population. Direct medical costs of the outpatients and inpatients admitted to the ward or intensive care unit were included. The effectiveness of the model was measured in quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs).

In all simulations, the use of nirmatrelvir/ritonavir resulted in incremental costs per patient of US dollar (USD)245.86 and incremental effectiveness of 0.009 QALY, over a year. The incremental cost-utility ratio was USD27 220.70/QALY. The relative risk of the vaccinated population was the factor that affected the outcome most, according to the univariate sensitivity analysis. The probabilistic sensitivity analysis resulted in 100% of the simulations being more costly and effective, but that only 4% of them were below the established cost-effectiveness threshold of USD24 000.00/QALY. In the scenario considering only the population over 60 years old and immunosuppressed (of any age), the incremental cost-utility ratio was USD7589.37/QALY.

The use of nirmatrelvir/ritonavir in the treatment of COVID-19 in a vaccinated population was cost-effective only for immunosuppressed individuals and people over 60 years of age.