A Framework for Enhancing Stock Investment Performance by Predicting Important Trading Points with Return-Adaptive...

Efficient stock status analysis and forecasting are important for stock market participants to be able to improve returns and reduce associated risks. However, stock market data are replete with noise and randomness, rendering the task of attaining precise price predictions arduous. Moreover, the lagging phenomenon of price prediction makes it hard for the corresponding trading strategy to capture the turning points, resulting in lower investment returns. To address this issue, we propose a framework for Important Trading Point (ITP) prediction based on Return-Adaptive Piecewise Linear Representation (RA-PLR) and a Batch Attention Multi-Scale Convolution Recurrent Neural Network (Batch-MCRNN) with the starting point of improving stock investment returns. Firstly, a novel RA-PLR method is adopted to detect historical ITPs in the stock market. Then, we apply the Batch-MCRNN model to integrate the information of the data across space, time, and sample dimensions for predicting future ITPs. Finally, we design a trading strategy that combines the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the Double Check (DC) method to match ITP predictions. We conducted a comprehensive and systematic comparison with several state-of-the-art benchmark models on real-world datasets regarding prediction accuracy, risk, return, and other indicators. Our proposed method significantly outperformed the comparative methods on all indicators and has significant reference value for stock investment.