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Effect of Breast Screening Regimen on Breast Cancer Outcomes: A Modeling Study
Martin J Yaffe1,2,3, James G Mainprize1
1Physical Sciences Platform, Sunnybrook Research Institute, Toronto, ON M4N 3M5, Canada.
Current Oncology (Toronto, Ont.)
|November 24, 2023
Summary
Starting breast cancer screening annually at age 40 significantly reduces mortality compared to later or less frequent screening. This approach lowers advanced cancer diagnoses, improving outcomes for women.
Area of Science:
- Oncology
- Public Health
- Epidemiology
Background:
- Breast cancer screening guidelines vary regarding initiation age and frequency.
- Optimal screening strategies require robust comparative analysis.
Purpose of the Study:
- To compare the impact of different breast cancer screening regimens on mortality and diagnosis stage.
- To evaluate screening strategies using a validated microsimulation model.
Main Methods:
- Utilized the OncoSim-Breast microsimulation model to simulate 1.53 million Canadian women born in 1975.
- Compared outcomes for screening initiated at ages 40 or 50, annually or biennially, through age 74, versus no screening.
Main Results:
- Annual screening from age 40 to 74 reduced breast cancer deaths by 7.9 per 1000 women compared to no screening.
- Earlier and more frequent screening led to a decrease in advanced-stage cancer diagnoses.
- Annual screening starting at 40 provided additional mortality reductions compared to biennial screening.
Conclusions:
- Annual breast cancer screening starting at age 40 through age 74 is associated with the greatest reduction in mortality.
- Increasing screening frequency and earlier initiation are linked to diagnosing cancers at earlier stages.
- Simulation modeling supports optimizing breast cancer screening protocols for improved population health outcomes.
