Predicting Bone Adaptation in Astronauts during and after Spaceflight

A method was previously developed to identify participant-specific parameters in a model of trabecular bone adaptation from longitudinal computed tomography (CT) imaging. In this study, we use these numerical methods to estimate changes in astronaut bone health during the distinct phases of spaceflight and recovery on Earth. Astronauts (N = 16) received high-resolution peripheral quantitative CT (HR-pQCT) scans of their distal tibia prior to launch (L), upon their return from an approximately six-month stay on the international space station (R+0), and after six (R+6) and 12 (R+12) months of recovery. To model trabecular bone adaptation, we determined participant-specific parameters at each time interval and estimated their bone structure at R+0, R+6, and R+12. To assess the fit of our model to this population, we compared static and dynamic bone morphometry as well as the Dice coefficient and symmetric distance at each measurement. In general, modeled and observed static morphometry were highly correlated (R²> 0.94) and statistically different (p < 0.0001) but with errors close to HR-pQCT precision limits. Dynamic morphometry, which captures rates of bone adaptation, was poorly estimated by our model (p < 0.0001). The Dice coefficient and symmetric distance indicated a reasonable local fit between observed and predicted bone volumes. This work applies a general and versatile computational framework to test bone adaptation models. Future work can explore and test increasingly sophisticated models (e.g., those including load or physiological factors) on a participant-specific basis.