Quantitative CT features on admission combined with laboratory biomarkers for predicting severe acute pancreatitis

To assess the association of quantitative computed tomography (CT) features on admission with acute pancreatitis (AP) severity, and to explore the performance of combined CT and laboratory markers for predicting severe AP (SAP).

Data from 208 AP patients were reviewed retrospectively. Pancreas volume, the area of extrapancreatic inflammation, extrapancreatic fluid collection volume, and number were calculated based on CT images on admission. Laboratory biomarkers within 24 h of admission were collected. Interobserver agreement for CT measurements was measured by calculating interclass correlation coefficient (ICC). The associations of quantitative CT features with AP severity were evaluated. Predictive models for SAP were constructed based on CT and laboratory markers. Performances of single marker and the models were evaluated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and area under the ROC curve (AUC).

Pancreas volume, area of extrapancreatic inflammation, extrapancreatic fluid collection volume, and number were significantly different between severe and non-severe AP groups. In predicting SAP, the AUCs of quantitative CT indicators ranged from 0.72 to 0.79; the AUCs of laboratory biomarkers were between 0.53 and 0.66. The combined model of area of extrapancreatic inflammation, serum calcium, and haematocrit yielded an AUC of 0.84, significantly higher than that of the laboratory model, single CT, or laboratory marker. Interobserver agreements for quantitative CT indicators were excellent, with ICC ranging from 0.91 to 0.98.

Quantitative CT features on admission were significantly associated with AP severity; the combination of extrapancreatic inflammation area, serum calcium, and haematocrit could be taken as a new method for predicting SAP.