Prevalence of neurodevelopmental differences and autism in Scottish primary schools 2018-2022

This study investigated the prevalence of neurodevelopmental needs among children in primary schools in Scotland. Two groups were identified: autistic learners and a larger group of learners who had neurodevelopmental differences. These differences encompassed any need for additional support in various domains, including communication, interaction, emotional regulation, coordination, movement, and cognition. A two-phase process was employed, drawing on data from a cross-sectional study followed by a secondary analysis of a population census. In the first phase, a random sample of 688 children with additional support needs from 22 schools participated. Demographics, support characteristics, and neurodevelopmental needs were identified. Results revealed that 76.89% of children with additional support needs exhibited a need type consistent with a neurodevelopmental difference. In the second phase, data from the Scottish Government Annual Pupil Census, covering all state-provided primary school children between 2018 and 2022, were analyzed. Modeling was conducted using data from the first phase to estimate prevalence of neurodevelopmental differences. Data on autism were directly extracted from the census. Analysis revealed an increase in the prevalence of neurodevelopmental differences and autism. The prevalence of autism rose by 31.98%, with 2.60% of primary school children identified as autistic in 2022. Similarly, the prevalence of neurodevelopmental differences increased by 10.57%, with 16.22% of primary school children exhibiting such differences in 2022. Across 32 localities, regional variations in prevalence were observed. These findings show the substantial number of neurodivergent children within Scottish primary schools and emphasize the need for a neurodevelopmentally informed approach to inclusive education.