Performance of International Classification of Disease-10 codes in detecting emergency department patients with...

Accurate case discovery is critical for disease surveillance, resource allocation and research. International Classification of Disease (ICD) diagnosis codes are commonly used for this purpose. We aimed to determine the sensitivity, specificity and positive predictive value (PPV) of ICD-10 codes for opioid misuse case discovery in the emergency department (ED) setting.

Retrospective cohort study of ED encounters from January 2018 to December 2020 at an urban academic hospital in the United States. A sample of ED encounters enriched for opioid misuse was developed by oversampling ED encounters with positive urine opiate screens or pre-existing opioid-related diagnosis codes in addition to other opioid misuse risk factors.

A total of 1200 randomly selected encounters were annotated by research staff for the presence of opioid misuse within health record documentation using a 5-point scale for likelihood of opioid misuse and dichotomized into cohorts of opioid misuse and no opioid misuse.

Using manual annotation as ground truth, the sensitivity and specificity of ICD-10 codes entered during the encounter were determined with PPV adjusted for oversampled data. Metrics were also determined by disposition subgroup: discharged home or admitted.

There were 541 encounters annotated as opioid misuse and 617 with no opioid misuse. The majority were males (54.4%), average age was 47 years and 68.5% were discharged directly from the ED. The sensitivity of ICD-10 codes was 0.56 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.51-0.60), specificity 0.99 (95% CI, 0.97-0.99) and adjusted PPV 0.78 (95% CI, 0.65-0.92). The sensitivity was higher for patients discharged from the ED (0.65; 95% CI, 0.60-0.69) than those admitted (0.31; 95% CI, 0.24-0.39).

International Classification of Disease-10 codes appear to have low sensitivity but high specificity and positive predictive value in detecting opioid misuse among emergency department patients in the United States.