Stability Trends in disubstituted Cobaltocenium Based on the Analysis of the Machine Learning Models

Cobaltocenium derivatives have shown great potential as components of anion exchange membranes in fuel cells because they exhibit excellent thermal and alkaline stability under operating conditions while allowing for high anion mobility. The properties of the cobaltocenium-anion complexes can be chemically tuned through the substituent groups on the cyclopentadienyl (Cp) rings of the cation CoCp₂⁺. However, the synthesis and characterization of the full range of possible derivatives are very challenging and time-consuming, and while the computational tools can greatly expedite this process, full screening of the electronic structure at a high level of theory is still computationally intensive. Therefore, in this work, we consider the machine learning (ML) modeling as a tool of predicting stability of disubstituted [CoCp₂]OH complexes measured by their bond-dissociation energy (BDE). The relevant process here is the dissociation of the cobaltocenium-hydroxide complex into fragments [CoCpY']OH and CpY, where Y and Y' each represent one out of 42 substituent groups of experimental interest. In agreement with the previous ML study of 120 mono- and selected disubstituted species [Wetthasinghe et al. J. Chem. Phys. A (2022) 126], our analysis of the data set expanded to all possible disubstituted cobaltoceniums, points to the highest occupied and lowest unoccupied molecular orbitals, along with the Hirshfeld charge on the singly substituted benzene, to be the key features predicting the BDE of the unseen complexes. Based on the examination of the outliers, the acidity of substituents ((CO)NH₂ in our case) is found to be of special significance for the cobaltocenium stability and for the model development. Moreover, we demonstrate that upon the data set refinement, the conventional ML models are capable of predicting the BDE close to 1 kcal/mol based on the properties of just the fragments, thereby greatly reducing the total number of species and of the computational time of each calculation. Such fragment-based "combinatorial" approach to the BDE modeling is noteworthy, since the geometry optimization of complexes in solution is conceptually challenging and computationally demanding, even when leveraging high-performance computing resources.