The African mosquito-borne diseasosome: geographical patterns, range expansion and future disease emergence

Mosquito-borne diseases (MBDs) threaten public health and food security globally. We provide the first biogeographic description of the African mosquito fauna (677 species) and the 151 mosquito-borne pathogens (MBPs) they transmit. While mosquito species richness agrees with expectations based on Africa's land surface, African arboviruses and mammalian plasmodia are more speciose than expected. Species assemblages of mosquitoes and MBPs similarly separate sub-Saharan Africa from North Africa, and those in West and Central Africa from eastern and southern Africa. Similarities between mosquitoes and MBPs in diversity and range size suggest that mosquitoes are key in delimiting the range of MBPs. With approximately 25% endemicity, approximately 50% occupying one to three countries and less than 5% occupying greater than 25 countries, the ranges of mosquitoes and MBPs are surprisingly small, suggesting that most MBPs are transmitted by a single mosquito species. Exceptionally widespread mosquito species feed on people and livestock, and most are high-altitude-windborne migrants. Likewise, widespread MBPs are transmitted among people or livestock by widespread mosquitoes, suggesting that adapting to people or livestock and to widespread mosquito species promote range expansion in MBPs. Range size may predict range expansion and emergence risk. We highlight key knowledge gaps that impede prediction and mitigation of future emergence of local and global MBDs.