A prediction model for the progression from gestational hypertension to pre-eclampsia complicated with HELLP syndrome

HELLP syndrome is a severe complication of hypertensive disorders of pregnancy that can cause multiple organ dysfunction and maternal death in a short period of time. Although HELLP syndrome is more common in patients with pre-eclampsia (PE), there is currently no effective way to identify high-risk individuals who may progress from gestational hypertension (GH) to PE complicated with HELLP syndrome. This study aimed to establish and validate a prediction model for PE complicated with HELLP syndrome, providing a basis for early detection and identification of high-risk individuals in clinical practice.

This retrospective case-control study collected data on 326 patients with GH and 139 patients with PE complicated with HELLP syndrome from January 2015 to December 2019. An additional 206 patients with GH and 70 patients with PE complicated with HELLP syndrome who were treated from January 2020 to December 2022 were collected for external validation. General and clinical data were collected, and single-and multiple-factor logistic regression analyses were used to screen for independent factors affecting PE complicated with HELLP syndrome. The diagnostic performance of different indicators was evaluated using ROC curves. A prediction model for PE complicated with HELLP syndrome was constructed, and its efficacy was verified using ROC curves.

The results of single-factor analysis showed that age, SBP, DBP, MAP, hemoglobin, AST, ALT, cholinesterase, alkaline phosphatase, gamma-glutamyl transferase, total protein, total bilirubin, direct bilirubin, indirect bilirubin, BUN, UA, creatinine, APTT, international normalized ratio of prothrombin, D-dimer, fibrinogen, fibrinogen degradation products, Ca, and aspartate-aminotransferase to platelet ratio index (APRI) were factors influencing PE with HELLP syndrome. The results of multiple-factor logistic regression analysis showed that MAP, APRI, CHE, FDP, and Ca were independent factors affecting PE complicated with HELLP syndrome. Based on these results, a prediction model was established, with Y = 9.861 + 2.998APRI + 0.055MAP + 0.014FDP - 0.005CHE - 7.452*Ca.

The predictive model for PE complicated with HELLP syndrome includes APRI, MAP, FDP, CHE, and Ca. This model can be used as a quantitative tool for predicting and evaluating the development of GH into PE complicated with HELLP syndrome.