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A normative theory of luck.
Chengwei Liu1, Chia-Jung Tsay2,3
1European School of Management and Technology, Berlin, Germany.
Frontiers in Psychology
|November 29, 2023
Summary
This study introduces a normative theory of luck to explain how randomness influences success. It shows that high performance can sometimes indicate lower quality, not just good fortune or skill.
Area of Science:
- Cognitive psychology
- Decision science
- Behavioral economics
Background:
- Psychologists identify heuristics and biases leading to misattributions of success.
- Outcomes attributed to skill may often stem from randomness.
- Interpreting cognitive shortcuts as biases is ambiguous due to their advantages.
Purpose of the Study:
- To address ambiguity in interpreting biases related to luck and skill.
- To present a normative theory of luck integrating psychology and chance models.
- To predict when performance non-monotonicity occurs.
Main Methods:
- Developed four versions of a normative theory of luck (weak, semi-weak, semi-strong, strong).
- Integrated psychological insights with chance model approaches.
- Used the semi-strong version to analyze academic citations and impact.
Main Results:
- Higher performance does not always equate to greater merit or quality.
- Performance non-monotonicity can occur under specific circumstances.
- Higher academic citations may indicate lower publication quality in some cases.
Conclusions:
- A normative theory of luck clarifies the role of randomness in success.
- Strategies are needed to differentiate luck from skill.
- Understanding these biases has broad implications for evaluating performance.
Keywords:
Matthew effectattribution biasesbehavioral strategychance modelslucksimulationthe Carnegie schoolMore Related Videos
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