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Driving effect of multiplex factors on Mpox in global high-risk region, implication for Mpox based on one health
Shan Gao1, Zan Zeng2, Yujia Zhai3
1NMPA Key Laboratory for Quality Monitoring and Evaluation of Vaccines and Biological Products, One Health Center of Excellence for Research and Training, School of Public Health, Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangzhou 510080, PR China.
Abstract:
Mpox is an ongoing viral zoonotic disease epidemic worldwide. Being different from conventional animal-to-human transmission, the present outbreak is mainly caused by human-to-human transmission of Mpox virus, putting forward the risk of worldwide epidemic. The current spatial distribution characteristics and risk area prediction are urgently needed for preparedness for prevention and control of the disease based on the One Health strategy. In the present study, the global outbreak point of Mpox virus were collected and used to predict potential global risk of Mpox virus with ecological niche model constructed with a combination of eco-geographical, anthropoid, meteorological, and host variables. The results showed that human factors are the key to the risk and prevalence of Mpox. The risk map indicated that Mpox may affect extensive areas worldwide. Europe and North America have the highest risk of Mpox. Although most areas have never recorded Mpox before, there are some high-risk areas in Asia. Our findings highlight population density is the most important contributing factor for high-risk area. Many large cities with dense populations, developed transportation, and high migration rate in the world, are in high risks. At present, the spread of Mpox is highly valued in the world and strict prevention and control measures have been taken. However, under the influence of human factors, Mpox has the potential of a global pandemic. The risk area prediction and main risk factors provide key information for targeted preparedness for prevention and control of Mpox outbreak and avoiding potential global epidemic through the One Health approach.
Insights
Mpox outbreaks, driven by human-to-human transmission, pose a global epidemic risk. Population density is a key factor, highlighting urban centers as high-risk areas for Mpox.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Zoonotic Diseases
- Public Health
Background:
- Mpox (formerly monkeypox) is a viral zoonotic disease with an ongoing global epidemic.
- The current outbreak is primarily characterized by human-to-human transmission, differing from conventional animal-to-human spread.
- Predicting spatial distribution and risk areas is crucial for effective disease control under the One Health strategy.
Purpose of the Study:
- To predict the potential global risk areas of Mpox virus.
- To identify key factors influencing Mpox prevalence and spread.
- To inform preparedness and prevention strategies using an ecological niche model.
Main Methods:
- Collected global Mpox virus outbreak data.
- Constructed an ecological niche model using eco-geographical, anthropoid, meteorological, and host variables.
- Analyzed spatial distribution and identified high-risk regions.
Main Results:
- Human factors significantly influence Mpox risk and prevalence.
- Europe and North America show the highest risk, with notable high-risk areas identified in Asia.
- Population density emerged as the most critical factor for high-risk areas, particularly in densely populated, well-connected cities.
Conclusions:
- Mpox has the potential for global pandemic spread due to human factors.
- Risk area predictions and identified factors provide essential data for targeted Mpox prevention and control.
- The One Health approach is vital for mitigating potential global Mpox epidemics.
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