Risk valuation for E. coli contamination in Campania region shellfish from 2016 to 2021

This study set out to assess the microbiological quality of shellfish collected over a six-year period of time in the Campania Region Sea. A total of 1459 samples were examined in order to determine whether Escherichia coli was present. To investigate potential correlations between the E. coli counts and environmental parameters (salinity, pH, dissolved oxygen, seawater temperature, turbidity, rainfall) and pollution variables (density and distance of heavy and light discharges), data were gathered. With only roughly 19% of the samples not meeting European and Italian criteria (E. coli counts more than 230 most likely number MPN per 100 g of pulp and intravalvar liquid), the results showed that the microbiological quality of the shellfish was good. A correlation between microbial contamination, season, rainfall, and dissolved oxygen was found using statistical analysis. However, the discharge density along the coast per spatial unit (a 200 × 200 MT cell), which was determined using the "quartic" Kernel function, showed found to be the primary factor determining the E. coli concentration in the shellfish. An increase in rain millimeters was found to be associated with a higher risk of heightened E. coli contamination, according to a model that was fitted to assess the probability of detecting a higher E. coli count in connection to environmental parameters. This outcome could be explained by the discharge density near the coast as well as the increased availability of coliforms, particularly E. coli, and nutrients during periods of heavier rainfall.