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Development of an integrated scenario-based stochastic rolling-planning multistage logistics model considering
Md Mohibul Islam1, Masahiro Arakawa2
1Department of Industrial & Production Engineering, Rajshahi University of Engineering & Technology, Rajshahi, 6204, Bangladesh.
Heliyon
|November 29, 2023
Summary
This study introduces a new logistics model that reduces costs by integrating supplier selection and risk management. The scenario-based stochastic rolling-planning approach optimizes inventory and production, outperforming fixed-volume methods in risk environments.
Area of Science:
- Operations Research
- Supply Chain Management
- Logistics Optimization
Background:
- Traditional logistics models often fail to adequately address multifaceted risks.
- Effective supplier selection and dynamic planning are crucial for cost reduction in complex supply chains.
Purpose of the Study:
- To propose an integrated, scenario-based, stochastic rolling-planning multistage logistics model.
- To reduce overall logistics costs by managing price, demand, and quality risks.
Main Methods:
- A two-phase approach: multi-criteria group decision-making for supplier selection, followed by a rolling-planning model with risk factors.
- Integration of supplier risks (quality, price) and customer risks (demand) into the logistics model.
- Comparison with a fixed-volume production and delivery model via a numerical example and sensitivity analysis.
Main Results:
- The proposed model achieved lower logistics costs (2,697,648.00 units) compared to the fixed-volume model (2,721,843.00 units).
- Demonstrated effectiveness in regulating inventory, stock-out, and overstock problems through continuous production volume control.
- Sensitivity analysis confirmed the model's superiority and robustness under various conditions.
Conclusions:
- The developed risk-embedded rolling-planning logistics method offers significant cost savings in uncertain environments.
- The integrated model provides a robust framework for optimizing logistics operations by proactively managing diverse risks.
- Highlights the importance of dynamic planning and supplier vetting for resilient supply chains.
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